Purchase Probability & Retail Lift Report
Sampling Campaign · Aug 19 – Oct 15, 2025
March 2026
Sampling Campaign · Aug 19 – Oct 15, 2025
March 2026Each scenario models different purchase intent levels for samplers who did not leave detailed feedback.
| Scenario | Assumption | Purchase Prob. | Annual ROAS | Annual ROI | Retail Lift | Year 1 Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moderate ✓ | Some lift from trial (45%) | 47.8% | 2.40x | 140% | +25–35% | $207,300 |
| Optimistic | Good lift from trial (55%) | 57.2% | 3.66x | 266% | +35–50% | $315,900 |
Revenue projected over a full year based on 96,000 sample units distributed to ~24,000 unique users (4 minis per user), with purchase frequency modeled across buyer tiers. Total campaign cost: $86,400.
Methodology Note: Samplers who leave detailed feedback tend to skew more positive than the overall population. The headline KPIs use a blended estimate that weights the engaged cohort against a baseline purchase intent of 45% for samplers who did not leave detailed feedback like comments and pictures.
Placement’s sampling model acquires verified, high-intent customers at a fraction of typical CPG acquisition costs.
Industry benchmarks sourced from CPG trade reports and media agency rate cards. Placement CAC includes full distribution and production costs ($86,400 / 11,472 converted buyers).
Every Placement sample is distributed within 1 mile of a stocking retailer, meaning conversion translates directly to store-level velocity. This gives your retail partners measurable sell-through data to support distribution conversations.
These store-level metrics give your retail partners concrete sell-through data — the kind of numbers that strengthen distribution reviews and support shelf-space conversations.
Among samplers who left written feedback, nearly 1 in 10 voluntarily expressed intent to purchase again — unprompted.
It was delicious! I loved the authentic rich chocolate hazelnut flavor. It was creamy and not too sweet. Would definitely recommend to others and purchase again.
Taste so good. Would definitely buy this if I saw this at the store.
These were amazing! The milk chocolate was rich and creamy. I will definitely look for these next time I’m at the store.
Sooo good, my kids are enjoying them a little bit too much! Very delicious, both dark and milk chocolate. Would definitely get them again.
Quotes selected from 641 feedback responses. 9.8% of all written feedback contained unprompted purchase or repurchase intent language.
| Time Period | Projected Lift | Est. Quarterly Revenue | Lift Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1: Months 1–3 | +35–45% | $69,200 | Initial purchase + first repeat from satisfied trialists |
| Q2: Months 4–6 | +28–35% | $55,300 | Regular buyers continue, light buyers taper |
| Q3: Months 7–9 | +22–28% | $43,500 | Product enters regular shopping rotation |
| Q4: Months 10–12 | +20–25% | $39,300 | Established new baseline velocity |
| Year 1 Total | +25–35% avg. | $207,300 |
| Metric | Moderate | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|
| Unique users per store | 240 | 240 |
| Conversion rate | 47.8% | 57.2% |
| Converted buyers per store | 115 | 137 |
| Avg. purchases/buyer/year | 5.7 | 7.2 |
| Incremental units/store (Year 1) | 654 | 989 |
| Incremental USPW (annual avg.) | +12.6 | +19.0 |
| Revenue per store | $2,287 | $3,462 |
| Total campaign revenue | $207,300 | $315,900 |
Based on 96,000 units to ~24,000 users across ~100 stores. Buyer tiers: lapsed 15% (1x/yr), light 30% (4x/yr), regular 45% (7x/yr), enthusiast 10% (12x/yr). Campaign cost: $86,400.
Every sampler actively seeks out the product, generates a unique code, and makes a trip to pick it up — the strongest behavioral signal of genuine interest.
Samples distributed within 1 mile of retailers carrying the product. Every conversion translates directly to store-level velocity.
Drives consumers to the store specifically for this product, creating new shopping occasions rather than capturing existing in-store demand.
Samplers live with the product before buying, forming a considered opinion. The first purchase is a deliberate decision, driving higher repeat rates.
Only 2.0% of feedback contained any issues — indicating exceptional product reception.
Click any card below to see the full calculation methodology.
Each sampler who left detailed feedback receives a composite score from five behavioral signals. For samplers without detailed feedback, we apply a baseline of 45% purchase intent.
Adapted from the Semantic Similarity Rating (SSR) method by Maier et al. (2025), which demonstrated 90% correlation with real survey panels.
Sampling acquires customers, not one-time transactions. ROAS and ROI are calculated on a Year 1 basis with repeat purchase behavior across buyer tiers.
Annual Buyer Tiers:
Retail lift is projected using three Placement-specific inputs:
Percentage of engaged samplers scoring 4.0+ on the 5-point scale, requiring at minimum “Satisfied” base rating with positive sentiment signals.